How to place our research bets
Scientific research has produced countless discoveries that help us make better decisions and ultimately enjoy improved outcomes. Each year we learn things that make many previous choices look like horrible mistakes. More research provides more reliable answers, but what approach to scientific discovery will bring the greatest rewards? The Meta-Problem Method helps us think it through.
Complex problems are often vague and have many possible solutions. The Meta-Problem Method may lead you far away from the dilemma that started your quest. That’s because the method forces you to clarify what you really want and what you are willing to give up. It enables you to compare objectively the possible pathways and their trade offs. It prevents you locking into solutions mode too early and then doubling down on solving a low-yield problem that does not serve your goals as well as the alternatives. At the end of this process, you will have a better understanding of your priorities and how to achieve them.
Steps in the Meta-Problem Method
Dilemma
The high-level issue you are trying to address
Decide which questions need more study.
Goal
The changes you want to make to address the dilemma. There are usually many options.
Supporting Goals
- New scientific theories explain novel phenomena.
- Existing scientific theories become more complete and rigorous.
Other goals could include achieving specific benefits of scientific innovation like improved human health, minimizing the costs of scientific research, and learning more that guides future study.
Problem Space
The set of problems you could chose to solve to advance your goals, plus the constraints that hold you back.
Example problems
- Which areas do we understand the least? Maybe the problem to solve is “What research studies could eliminate the most unknowns?”
- Which existing research has the most open questions? Maybe the problem to solve is “What are the most important studies that could be wrong?”
There are many other potential problems to solve related to reducing the unknown. Each goal has many possible problems we could link to it. Are there other problems linked to these first two goals? Which options come to mind for the other goals?
High-Yield Problems
Sometimes solving one problem helps make progress towards several goals. In this step, we identify these “two-for-the-price-of-one” problems.
Which options will advance more than one goal?
- Developing new medications can treat previously uncurable conditions, can improve human health, and reveal promising opportunities for future study. However, the cost to develop new medications is high, and any gaps in previous research will remain.
- Studying old medications can reveal previously overlooked issues like side effects for diverse patients who were excluded in the original research, or potential new uses, as well as improve human health, and at relatively low cost. However, no new scientific theories are likely to be developed and limited additional insights will be discovered.
There are many potential solutions that will have varying effects on the set of goals. Which alternatives improve the most important goals? How might the unknown change the right path forward? What other possible solutions are there to address the dilemma?
Problem Selection
Which of the many possible options in the high-yield problem step is the best set to address the dilemma?
- Which solutions make the most sense when investing in science?
- Which solutions will best address the dilemma?
- Which solutions will deliver the best outcome for the least amount of time, effort and money?
Implement, Learn and Adapt
Check continuously that you are still solving the best problem, as new information emerges.
Observe and learn as you go. As new information reveals itself, check continuously that you’re still solving the right problem.